Climate Change – Part 1
So, Climate Change is finally heating up. Pardon the pun…but really, it is somewhat scary that we have to wait for yet another report that the Earth’s climate is indeed warming up. Those who ignore the science on this issue are either myopic, ignorant or just plain, dare I say it, stupid.
Critical thinking is a key component of the scientific method. But when faced with overwhelming evidence, one must at least say that the climate is changing. Now, the last argument that I have heard is that climate change is not anthropogenic and that we are just in a normal climate cycle of atmospheric warming.
Again, the evidence is overwhelming that humans are the primary cause of the latest warming trends.
Let’s get our heads out of the sand and really think about the problem and a solution. Ironically, the simplest solutions are usually the best…
Use less energy, when we use energy, use energy generated by the cleanest means possible.
Read the full article:
2014 Breaks Heat Record, Challenging Global Warming Skeptics
Limited free access; NY Times subscription may be required.
Agreed that there is evidence that the climate is changing, but the key is to understanding the root cause of the change. Is it natural and therefore our focus should be on adapting to the forces of nature, or is it really caused by increasing the CO2 concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere from one infinitesimally small level of 0.03% to another higher but still infinitesimally small 0.04%?
At present, scientists have developed an atmospheric model that correlates to “massaged” historic temperature data over the past 200 years or so and then extrapolates this correlation to claim disastrous results.
Beware the dangers of statistics, and be very afraid of extrapolating those statistics.
Science is not premised on only statistics, science requires a specific methodology called the scientific method. This is comprised of the following steps:
1.Ask a Question
2. Do Background Research
3 Construct a Hypothesis
4 Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment
5 Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
6 Communicate Your Results.
The missing step in Anthropogenic Climate Science (“ACC”) is the experimental step. Although required for drug trials, it seems to be skipped with regard to ACC science because we only have only one earth.
Maybe the statistical correlation is correct, maybe the extrapolation is correct (except extrapolation did not work out too well for Al Gore and became his very own Inconvenient Truth) but most people would not advocate any sea change in our society to address ACC and what could very well be a straw-man.
As Mark Twain said: There are three types of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics.